Russia Invades Ukraine, EIA Draw Slightly Bullish, Pattern Cold Enough Next 4-Days, But Too Warm March 2-7

Friday, Feb 25: April’22 nat gas prices closed solidly higher Thursday, although off session highs. Prices were initially teasing $5 after reports of Russia invaded Ukraine, then eased off ahead of the EIA storage repot, which was slightly bullish to market expectations. After big warmer trends earlier in the week, the weather data gained back a little demand Wednesday into Thursday, although reversed course overnight as both the GFS and EC shed 5-7 HDDs on warmer trends next week into the following week. No major changes to the timing of swings in national demand with strong demand the next several days as widespread frigid lows of -20s to 20s impacts most of the interior US, including lows of 10s to 30s again into Texas and the South. A reinforcing cold shot will follow across the northern and eastern US this weekend into early next week, although not quite as impressive compared to what the data showed earlier in the week. Where the pattern remains bearish and warmer trending overnight is March 2-8 as comfortable highs of 50s to 80s gain ground over much of the interior US. There’s still expected to be an attempt by colder air to return across the west-central and northern US March 8-11, although far from convincing and with greater risk of warmer trends over colder trends in time