Hotter Trends Over Fourth of July

Friday, July 5: The GFS trended a little hotter over the holiday break and then trended a little further hotter overnight. This puts it better in line with the already hotter European model, but still a few CDD’s less. Both datasets are hotter trending July 11-17 by seeing a stronger upper ridge extend further into the northern US out of the already hot southern US. Essentially, bullish trends compared to Wednesday’s data with the adding of numerous CDD’s/Bcf in demand, especially in the GFS model that had been too cool. Overall, we view weather patterns as hot enough and would likely take some of the blame if prices were to rally over $2.30-2.31. Of course, today’s mid-day data will be important to see if hotter trends hold before the weekend break.