Prices Rally After Slightly Bullish EIA Miss & Colder Trending GFS
Thursday Afternoon: March’22 nat gas prices rocketed higher overnight after the GFS model trended 23 HDDs colder for Feb 1-10. Prices eased off after as the overnight EC model wasn’t nearly as cold as the GFS Feb 7-11. Nat gas prices were moderately higher near $4.05 going into the EIA weekly storage report, then rallied after it printed a draw of -219 Bcf, slightly bullish to market expectations, thereby flipping surpluses of +33 Bcf to deficits of -25 Bcf. Next week’s draw is expected to be more than 100 Bcf larger than normal, with the following several also larger than normal to increase deficits towards -200 Bcf. This makes today’s midday weather data important to see if the string of larger than normal draws continue into mid-February and where the latest GFS just finishing was colder trending Feb 2-4 but warmer Feb 6-9, at least compared to last night’s run. But most important, the latest GFS remains quite cold through the weekend and again Feb 3-7, while also being still plenty cold enough across the northern US Feb 8-11 to remain numerous HDDs colder and more bullish compared to the EC. This makes the afternoon EC important to see if it adds demand Feb 2-4 and Feb 8-11 to better match the GFS. If it were to, the nat gas markets are likely to applaud.