Prices Rally After Slightly Bullish EIA Miss & Colder Trending GFS
By natgasweather

Prices Rally After Slightly Bullish EIA Miss & Colder Trending GFS

Thursday Afternoon: March’22 nat gas prices rocketed higher overnight after the GFS model trended 23 HDDs colder for Feb 1-10.  Prices eased off after as the overnight EC model wasn’t nearly as cold as the GFS Feb 7-11.   Nat gas prices were moderately higher near $4.05 going into the EIA weekly storage report, then rallied after it printed a draw of -219 Bcf, slightly bullish to market expectations, thereby flipping surpluses of +33 Bcf to deficits of -25 Bcf.  Next week’s draw is expected to be more than 100 Bcf larger than normal, with the following several also larger than normal to increase deficits towards -200 Bcf.  This makes today’s midday weather data important to see if the string of larger than normal draws continue into mid-February and where the latest GFS just finishing was colder trending Feb 2-4 but warmer Feb 6-9, at least compared to last night’s run.  But most important, the latest GFS remains quite cold through the weekend and again Feb 3-7, while also being still plenty cold enough across the northern US Feb 8-11 to remain numerous HDDs colder and more bullish compared to the EC.  This makes the afternoon EC important to see if it adds demand Feb 2-4 and Feb 8-11 to better match the GFS.  If it were to, the nat gas markets are likely to applaud.  

Colder trending GFS model that added 23 HDDs overnight and held most of the gain. It also makes colder than the EC model for Feb 7-11. Will the EC trend colder to match it or is the GFS too warm?
The latest midday GFS was colder trending with a system Feb 3-6 into the central, northern, and eastern US.
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  • January 27, 2022

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