Overnight GFS & EC Trend Colder But Prices Off Highs

Tuesday, February 15: March’22 prices rallied late Friday, Monday, and again today, aided by the latest GFS model gaining 18 HDDs, thereby conceding it was too warm with the 7-15-day pattern. In addition, some of the weather data teases better chances of decently cold weather systems into the northern US March 1-3 for relatively strong late season demand. Essentially, the overnight data is suggesting soon to be deficits of -240 Bcf aren’t likely to improve much through the start of March. As such, a sudden swing in momentum to the bullish side as prices bounce nearly 50¢ off early Friday lows, aided by colder trends and war threats. March’22 prices rallied to $4.40 this morning but then sold off to $4.22 as oil and gold prices collapsed on Russia backing off on invasion rhetoric. For the rest of Tuesday into Wednesday, will upcoming weather data data hold colder overnight trends?