Overnight 0z ECMWF Model Trends Notably Colder
By natgasweather

Overnight 0z ECMWF Model Trends Notably Colder

As we mentioned Tuesday afternoon, there were large differences between the colder GFS model for the first week of February compared to the much warmer ECMWF model and whichever proved more correct, prices would likely spike in that direction. Well, the GFS proved to be the better model in this situation as the overnight EC spiked a massive 24 HDDs by seeing colder trends across the northern, central, and eastern US Feb 3-8. The EC still isn’t quite as cold as the GFS but did take a big step in that direction overnight. But will the midday GFS and afternoon EC hold this colder trend and not reverse warmer, especially when considering the weather data has been inconsistent on the early February pattern going back to last week.

Image above shows the colder trending EC model compared to the prior 24-hours, with colder trends focused over the Midwest and central US, then shifting eastward after.
Graph above is from our Live HDD/CDD data and shows how the overnight 0z ECMWF model trended notably colder by 24 HDDs for the first week of February compared to prior runs.
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  • January 26, 2022

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