Nat Gas Prices Plummet $1.30, But GFS & EC Trend Colder Past 24-Hours
Tuesday, February 8: March’22 nat gas prices plummeted Monday for the third session in a row, closing down 33¢ at $4.24. Selling was again primarily attributed to the weather data holding milder trends for mid-February. However, the Monday afternoon EC model gained 12 HDDs on top of the 9 HDDs it added Sunday night on colder trends across the northern US. The GFS model had been a bit warmer than the EC Sunday/Monday but gained a hefty 17 HDDs overnight to close the gap, mostly on colder trends for the 7-14 day period. The overnight EC was colder early next week but warmer after, shedding 7-8 of the 22 HDDs it gained over the prior 24-hours. With the overnight GFS colder and the EC milder, they now match up better with a cold shot into the eastern ½ of the US late this weekend through early next week, followed by a milder break Feb 16-18 for a swing back to lighter demand. Both the GFS and EC favor another chilly weather system across the Midwest and East Feb 19-22 for a return to strong national demand ahead another warmer break Feb 23-24. While there will be swings in national demand every several days into late February due to weather systems traversing the northern and eastern US, the weather data has added demand the past 24-hours and is back to cold enough Feb 13-15 and Feb 19-22 and likely why March 22’ prices rallied 20¢ off Monday’s lows.
Our Live HDD/CDD data shows moderate demand through Friday, then stronger this weekend into the start of next week, easing Feb 15-18, then increasing again Feb 19-22.