Nat Gas Bears & Bulls Battling for $7

October 10, 2022: Now that Nov’22 prices failed to hold $7 late last weekk, does this mean bears have regained control and have eyes for $6? Or will cooler weekend weather trends stop the slide and give bulls fresh opportunity to again buy the dip. It’s not like weather patterns are bullish, especially when considering more than +600 Bcf will have been injected into supplies during the current 6-week stretch, reducing deficits from -350 Bcf to -150 Bcf. What cooler trends mean is there’s better potential for a closer to normal sized build for the EIA report three out. What could also influence trade this week is if US production were to deviate by a decent amount from 100 Bcf/day, as well as when LNG feedgas will increase as it remains soft at 11 Bcf/day with Cove Point still out for maintenance and Freeport LNG down into November and failing to contribute 2 Bcf/day. Of course, major daily news out of Europe and Russia regarding war and energy policies could spill over to US markets at any time. Fittingly, Nov’22 contracts closed near $6.60 Friday, an important support level that held many times the past few weeks. However, bulls have struggled to convincingly claim $7, keeping the battle for it going early this week, with the ultimate price taking out strong recent support of $7.20, as shown in the image above.