Longer Range ECMWF Forecasts Seasonal Early June, But Hot 2nd Half of June

May 24, 2022: The latest long range ECMWF forecast was issued Monday afternoon and showed a rather uneventful first half of June with upper high pressure seasonally strong over the south-central US but rather comfortable over most of the rest of the US with highs of 70s and 80s. With highs into the 90s mostly over the southern US, national demand will be near normal to slightly lighter than normal without hotter trends. However, if the second half of June proves hotter than normal, then deficits would increase further. We expect the nat gas markets will be watching close for how much heat the weather data shows for June and whether it’s hot enough to justify taking out $9.

Images below are ECMWF longer range forecasts for EIA Storage Week’s 5, 6, 7, and 8.