Frosty US Pattern Next 8-Days but Warmer Pattern Favored Nov 23-28
November 15, 2022: Dec’22 nat gas futures endured another maddening session Monday, w/prices sharply higher to $6.40 on colder weekend trends and Freeport LNG stating late Friday rumors of the facility returning to service being delayed until 2023 were false. However, prices sold off late in Monday’s session on warmer midday trends for Nov 23-28th and on fresh reports Freeport would in fact be delayed into Dec. Mixed trends in the overnight data, with the GFS trending 8 HDDs colder but with the EC 5 HDDs warmer. However, the EC lost a hefty 20 HDDs over the past 24-hours and the nat gas markets seemed to notice. The timing of swings in national demand held, with an unseasonably cold US pattern the next 8-days for strong national demand, aided by an impressive early season Arctic shot Fri-Sun that will drop lows across the northern US into the -10s to 20s, along w/upper teens to 30s across much of the southern US, including deep into Texas. As a result of widespread subfreezing temperatures this week, the first wellhead freeze-offs of the season are likely to drop US production by 1-2 Bcf/day. And with power burns stronger this week on widespread cold, the supply/demand balance has tightened versus last week, which could provide strength to cash prices. How much cold air lingers across the northern US Nov 23-28 has been given the weather models fits, but with the important EC model not as cold the past 24-hours in a bearish leaning pattern, as shown in the image below.