EIA Report Misses Bearish, Although GFS and EC Remain Cold Much of Next 15-Days

Thursday, February 17: The morning EIA weekly storage report printed a draw of -190 Bcf, lighter than market expectations closer to -200 Bcf, although larger than the 5-year average of -154 Bcf to increase deficits to -251 Bcf. We were exact with our -189-190 Bcf estimate. Prices have eased off several cents after the bearish report miss, while the nat gas markets wait on the new 12z midday weather data. The overnight weather data had the GFS add 18 HDDs for the third night in a row, adding a massive 60 HDDs since the start of the week. The overnight EC didn’t agree and trended back a little warmer, shedding 13 HDDs, although remained quite chilly vs normal for much of the next 15-days. Today’s midday data will be important since there’s potential the GFS trended too cold too quick and is susceptible to losing a quick 10-20 HDDs. But if it doesn’t, deficits of -251 Bcf will increase to near or over -300 by early March. Our Live HDD/CDD data has been great in catching these big weather trends ahead of or as the nat gas markets were reacting.