Cooler Trends for Late April Rally Prices to Open New Trading Week
April 17, 2023: Interesting weekend weather trends, with the front 7-days little changed and with swings in national demand between light and moderate. However, the 8-15-day period trended colder, with the GFS gaining 6-7 HDDs but with the EC adding a heftier 13 HDDs, and most of due to a colder trending weather system advancing deeper into the US April 23-26. It’s not a frigid system w/lows only dropping into the 20s and 30s, but some demand was added and could be reason for a higher open. In addition, LNG exports are quite strong today at 14.5 Bcf, near record highs. What also will be closely watched is where US production comes in the next few days to see if it drops from very high levels last week of 101 Bcf/day. If LNG exports hold at 14.5 Bcf, and if production were to drop under 100 Bcf/day, this would be welcomed signs of a tighter balance that could combat a heavily oversupplied market as surpluses increase to over +350 Bcf after the next two EIA reports are accounted for.