Colder Trends Continue Over Weekend
We anticipate violent trade will continue this week and where a higher trade Monday is possible due to the weekend weather data gaining around 10 Bcf in demand, especially when considering bulls have bought every dip the past 3-4 weeks, including defending $6 twice last week. We continue to have concerns US gas prices could spike higher than many expect since nat gas prices often overextend on strong moves, but also due to the fact over the past year, bullish news/trends move prices higher, while bearish news/trends often gets ignored. And a plethora of bullish factors remain solidly in play, highlighted by US deficits holding near -300 Bcf, production failing to increase above 93-94 Bcf, a hotter than normal summer expected, inflation, and the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition, there’s an exceptionally long holiday break next weekend due to Good Friday and where all US gas markets close Thursday afternoon, forcing major players to reposition in the days ahead.