Cold Pattern This Week w/Strong Demand. However, Warmer Pattern Feb 5-13 Weighing More Heavily.
January 31, 2023: Nat gas prices are further lower in overnight trade after the EC trended another 10 HDDs warmer. The overnight GFS was also warmer trending but by a more modest 5 HDDs. Most important, both have trended solidly bearish for the 6-15-day period as high pressure strengthens over the eastern ½ of the US with much above normal temperatures for light national demand. There’s still another 5-days of strong to very strong national demand to get through before the warmer pattern arrives as frigid temperatures hold over much of the interior US, w/lows of -10s to 20s over the northern and central US, including 10s to 30s deep into Texas. This is also expected to drop national production several Bcf/day due to widespread wellhead freeze-offs. But like all instances so far this winter, a cold enough pattern is only able to last 5-6-days before a much warmer than normal pattern is quick on its heels, just like the current set up where highs will warm into the very nice 50s to 70s over the southern and eastern US this weekend through next week.