1st Tropical System of Season Aiming at Florida. Hotter US Pattern Favored June 15-20

June 3, 2022: The first tropical system of the season will track across Florida this weekend with heavy rains and gusty winds, although overall viewed as bearish due to cooling Florida into the upper 70s to mid-80s, down from upper 80s to lower 90s.

It was a volatile day in the nat gas markets yesterday w/prices spiking over $9 before plummeting to $8.30 in overnight trade. The overnight GFS was a little cooler trending, although the EC was little changed. Both held a mix of light to moderate national demand the next 13-days but maintained a hot US pattern setting up June 16-20. If the hot pattern June 16-20 holds over the weekend, the nat gas markets will be staring down a bullish setup for days 11-15 when the nat gas markets reopen Sunday. Of course, if the weather data were to trend cooler June 16-20 it would disappoint. What could matter equally as much is if US production increases to back over 96 Bcf/day after briefly doing so early in the week. For today’s trade, will nat gas prices continue lower to $8 or will bulls again buy the dip when considering the background state remains bullish with deficits holding over -325 Bcf and ahead of a likely hotter US pattern June 16-20.