Will Hottest Pattern of Past 40+ Years for July 25-31 Hold?

July 21, 2023: Aug’23 nat gas prices rocketed 16¢ higher Thursday to $2.76, aided by hotter trends and a slight bullish EIA storage report miss. Also of importance, front month prices reclaimed $2.70, a level prices keep returning to over the past 6-weeks. Due to widespread heat over much of the US, the next several EIA reports are expected to print smaller than normal builds, providing opportunity for hefty surpluses of +360 Bcf to drop towards +300 Bcf. Mixed trends in the overnight data, with the GFS 1-2 CDDs cooler but with the EC 2-3 CDDs hotter. No major changes, w/strong national demand today, then easing this weekend due to a weather system over the Great Lakes and Northeast. National demand will increase to very strong levels next week as dangerous heat continues from California to Texas w/highs of mid-90s to 110s, along with Florida, the South, and Southeast hot w/highs of 90s. In addition, the East will be very warm w/highs of upper 80s to 90s, while the Midwest warms into the upper 80s. Essentially, nearly all the US will require demand for cooling next week and why CDDs will be the hottest of the past 40-years, barring cooler trends before then. And that’s what makes the pattern for July 25-31 so bullish since the theme all summer has been for impressive heat in the 10-16 day period to trend cooler as they roll into forecast days 3-9, and for the first time this summer, impressive heat has held without backing off.