Warm & Bearish US Weather Patterns Continue to Sink Nat Gas Prices!

January 3, 2023The long weekend weather data held a much warmer than normal first half of January pattern and where national demand will be lighter than normal each of the next 15-days. To the bullish side, this week’s EIA storage report will print a much larger draw than normal and where analysts’ expectations favor a massive draw of -220-260 Bcf versus the 5-year average of -98 Bcf. If close, the draw will increase deficits to near or over -200 Bcf. However, with one of the warmest US patterns on record playing out the next 15-days in terms of national daily HDDs, deficits will rapidly improve to being near par with 5-year averages. And if colder/bluer maps don’t show up for Jan 17-24, US supplies will again be sporting surpluses. The reason for such light national demand is most of the southern half of the US and up the Mid-Atlantic Coast will see highs in the 60s and 70s most of the next 15-days, while very little coverage of daytime highs below freezing over the northern US besides the lower population N. Plains and N. Rockies. What’s also pressuring prices to open the new trading week is US nat gas production recovered to 99 Bcf/day over the weekend, showing freeze-offs from the potent Arctic Blast that occurred over the Christmas Holiday ended.

Overall, prices natural gas prices continue to plunge on a record warm start to 2023 for the US, near record natural gas production, soft LNG exports due to Freeport still being offline, and very warm temperatures the past few weeks over Europe.