8-14 Day Outlook Details: (May 16th – May 22nd): A strong Spring storm will be over the central and eastern US next week with rounds of showers and severe thunderstorms. We have been saying the models would come around to colder for mid May and they have done just that as temperatures look to drop 10-20F colder than normal over many regions for several days. It is also likely cool conditions will push quite deep into the southeastern US. After the trough exits, temperatures will moderate to near normal even though the pattern remains active. We do caution the models will likely again come around to a few more cooler outbreaks as we push later into May. This will keep enough demand ongoing to prevent any builds from being exceptional, although this week should be fairly big if this past week was able to bring in a +74 Bcf build. We do expect the southern US and Plains to warm at times over the outlook period, especially late, but the core of the significant early season heat will remain over the Southwest. We continue to see the potential for a big pattern change in the offing, but it will take some time to play out to end this cool season madness.

Natural Gas & Heating Demand (compared to normal): LOW…Becoming Moderate Next Week

Weather Market Threat: Days 1-15: MODERATE

Market Effect: (For May 9th): The nat gas markets sold off sharply after the EIA weekly nat gas report came in with a build of +74 Bcf. Seems like a pretty high number considering much of the nation experienced below normal conditions and it came in nearly the same as last week when it was considerably milder. Curious indeed. That doesn’t bode well for next weeks report as conditions will have been much milder and the build should be greater. So maybe over +90-100 Bcf isn’t out of the question. Next weeks cool blast continues to look fairly impressive and should push deep into the southern US with the forecast models again locking in on the colder solutions we have been forecasting. It’s really a couple reinforcing cool blasts that follow into the weekend that could do the damage and keep cooler than normal conditions ongoing, not to mention bringing additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms tracking across the US. Going into the last week of May temperatures will again moderate over the northern US and much of the country as high pressure builds into the southern US and Plains for a decent warm up. However, a few more cool blasts and spring storms will likely be tracking across portions of the northern US at times, which will keep warm conditions regionalized and keep perfect build weather from setting up. That is not to say decent builds won’t occur, just not exceptional to make significant ground on the current supply deficit. Until the pattern becomes more favorable later in the month, any significant sell offs should be considered buying opportunities.